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Hegemonic Stability
Friday, August 08, 2014
  Ukraine tipping point
A sanction regime against Russia to punish Putin for the annexation of Crimea has feel good attributes. Those who remember Stalin's  Communist butchery and imperialist take over of Eastern Europe see themselves as learning from the mistakes made at Yalta. Others remember Neville Chamberlain and the failure to push back against Hitler and Nazism.  I would argue that both are confusing evil ideologies with legitimate national interests. Sanctions are seen as a way of  taking a moral stand without the political cost of overt military action at a time when the US is war weary and an important election is near. However sanctions can have unintended consequences. Regardless of one's theory of the origins of the Great Depression, most would agree the Smoot Hawley Tariffs were a factor. Similarly Roosevelt's anti Japanese trade sanctions pushed Japan into WWII.

Risking the disruption of the flow of Russian natural gas into Western Europe come winter time on the theory that Putin will back down under pressure is reckless brinksmanship. The recent drop in the Dow could be the canary in the coal mine
 
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From the Dictionary of Theories: "Nations achieve dominance in international systems, which they then must maintain by "rewards" to less powerful nations. Such a system is paradoxically unstable."

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